Usually, during the summer months aircraft transaction volume slows down, causing pre-owned aircraft inventory to increase. Normally, this summer slowdown is helpful during the 4th quarter when transaction volume peaks. However, 2026 inventory levels remain extremely low, particularly for the desirable aircraft models with low aircraft times and cycles. At a recent industry event I attended, many aircraft brokers mentioned how numerous clients looking for good, quality aircraft to purchase have been unsuccessful in finding anything that matches their search criteria. This aircraft shortage will impact the remainder of 2026 in three important ways.
First, as inventory levels decrease, sellers respond by requiring more seller-friendly terms in transactions such as larger non-refundable deposits, aggressive closing timelines and limiting the scope of pre-purchase inspections. These seller-friendly terms inevitability leave the buyers accepting more risk in the transactions. A strong seller market can turn off aircraft buyers and result in those buyers not moving forward with a transaction or moving into fractional ownership. Fractional programs can offer interim lease solutions which allow for immediate aircraft access while the new aircraft that the buyer purchased a fractional share in is being built.
The second impact of low inventory levels is that it will be extremely difficult to source a pre-owned aircraft during the 4th quarter. Historically, the 4th quarter is the busiest quarter for aircraft transactions during which many aircraft brokers close more than half of their yearly transaction volume. If there is limited inventory going into the 4th quarter buyers will either forgo the opportunity to purchase in 2026 or alter their search criteria and purchase a different aircraft (whether it be year, make, model, condition, configuration, or total time) than originally planned.
The third impact may go unnoticed for some time. Specifically, that buyers (i) may not buy, (ii) may decide to purchase a fractional share and/or (ii) may purchase an aircraft without a proper inspection or outside of their original search criteria. All of the foregoing has a long term impact on the health of the whole aircraft market because some buyers will go to fractional program and never move into whole aircraft. Others may be dissatisfied with the aircraft they purchased, sell the aircraft in short order and not purchase another aircraft again.
While there is not necessarily a solution for low inventory levels, the negative impacts can be minimized by buyers with a good, experienced and creative acquisition team.